Can Canada's Election Debate Shock The Betting Odds?
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So-called "knockout blows" are rare in Canadian politics, but there is an opportunity for one to land in tonight's English-language leaders' argument that could shock the surveys and betting chances.

- Tonight's English-language dispute is a chance for one of Canada's politicians to score points with citizens.

  • The chances and surveys are presently anticipating a Liberal win, a huge shift from what they were recommending late last year.
  • There's likely more wagering occurring on this Canadian election than any other in history.

    The argument arranged for 7 p.m. ET will provide a chance for Liberal leader Mark Carney to strengthen his party's lead, for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to turn the tables, and for the leaders of the Bloc Québécois and NDP to attempt to capture the eyes of voters.

    However, as things currently stand in the polls and on the oddsboard, Canada's 45th federal general is looking like it's the Liberals' to lose.

    Here's where the Canadian election odds stand @BET99ON ahead of tonight's English-language dispute for the federal party leaders.

    Liberals still leading, Conservatives still trailing, and everybody else still wayyyy back: pic.twitter.com/CAAsQZV1Mm

    At Bet99 in Ontario on Thursday early morning, the Liberals were still considerable favourites to win the election, at chances of -310. At an indicated likelihood of 75.61%, those chances are recommending what the polls have actually been suggesting: that the Liberals are ahead with voters at the minute.

    The Conservatives, on the other hand, were priced as +220 underdogs and all other celebrations at +7,500. Similar odds exist at other Ontario-regulated sportsbooks, with the Liberals -405 to form government at FanDuel on Thursday early morning and the Conservatives sitting at +250.

    It's been a constant climb for the Liberals during the project in both the polls and Canadian election odds. On April 8, the Liberals were priced as -250 favourites at Bet99, while the Conservatives were +175 underdogs.

    There is likely more wagering taking place on this Canadian election than any previous journey to the surveys. And there have been some big swings in the chances already.

    The resignation of previous prime minister Justin Trudeau earlier this year and President Donald Trump's remarks about Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state have been drivers for a resurgence in Liberal appeal. The Grits had been underdogs of +500 or more back in December at some sportsbooks, while the Conservatives were favourites of -900 or much shorter.

    Tonight's debate could be another driver for a shift in the odds, as it has been a couple of times in the past. (A French-language argument was hung on Wednesday, and earlier than initially intended so as not to conflict with a crucial Montreal Canadiens video game.)

    'You had a choice, sir'

    Perhaps the most significant example of a big debate moment took place more than 40 years back. That was when Progressive Conservative leader Brian Mulroney hit then-Liberal Prime Minister John Turner with a stunner during the 1984 federal leaders' debate.

    Former prime minister Pierre Trudeau had actually made a raft of appointments on the method out the door, and Mulroney stated to Turner that "You had a choice, sir" to say no to those moves.

    After Turner's lacklustre action, Mulroney and the Conservatives travelled to a massive win in the election over the already teetering Liberals.

    Will we see something similar tonight? Probably not, but election bettors might desire to keep an eye on the debate all the same.